While many have framed the concept of NIL as an opportunity for athletes to capitalize on their marketability, it has quickly become a tool for power programs to poach top talent from mid-major schools. FYI- I firmly believe in the concept of players earning some money off of their skillset - JUST LIKE REGULAR STUDENTS
The RIPPLE EFFECT
I truly foresee mid-major programs that currently thriving by developing under-recruited players, giving them a platform to flourish, staying at their college for some years and competing for NCAA Tournament bids will be a thing of the past as NIL coupled with the portal will create a tiered college system. Schools with deeper pockets will simply outbid smaller programs, leading to a talent drain that makes it nearly impossible for mid-majors to sustain success.
Ultimately, mid-majors will become development leagues.
2. While high-major programs raid mid-majors for their best talent, the reverse rarely happens. Mid-majors don’t have the financial backing to lure top-tier talent away from blue bloods, further widening the gap. But BIG but, division 2/3 programs, with school backing, can become a powerhouse for they may be able to scoop up a few D1 transfers along the way.
3. The magic of the NCAA Tournament often hinged on veteran mid-major teams making deep runs. Sadly, those rosters will get dismantled year after year, the likelihood of Cinderella stories decreases, shifting the tournament further in favor of powerhouse programs.
4. Coaches on the mid-major level will learn sooner than later how to navigate an entirely new era of roster construction, balancing short-term success with long-term sustainability almost like JUCO. Many have adapted by prioritizing NIL fundraising over traditional recruiting, but even then, they struggle to keep pace with major programs’ financial muscle.
The SOLUTION
Nope, not yet although I have a few ideas. .
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